DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
Hot PCE inflation fuels rate-hike talk as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 89.5%
In May, the PCE inflation index rose to 4.1% year over year, its hottest in three years, keeping the Fed alert to another hike if price pressures persist.
Judge blocks Trump student loan rules as Polymarket puts Vance at 20.55%
A U.S. judge on Monday blocked the Trump administration’s new student loan restrictions, stopping the rules from taking effect as litigation continues.
Trump battles GOP over Iran war powers as Polymarket pegs exit odds at 0.25%
After a late-night vote, Senate Republicans defeated a war powers resolution on Trump’s Iran campaign 47-50-1, after he confronted GOP holdouts including Bill Cassidy.
Ethereum Foundation cuts spur Polymarket shift as Vance climbs to 20%
EthLabs launched this week as the Ethereum Foundation announced about a 40% budget cut and layoffs for roughly 20% of staff, reviving doubts about its direction.
Cepeda concedes in Colombia as Polymarket prices Starmer exit at 91.5%
Three days after Colombia’s record-turnout run-off, leftist Ivan Cepeda conceded defeat to Abelardo de la Espriella while the final count continued.
Senate probes UAE-linked Trump crypto deal as Polymarket keeps him at 1.85%
On June 23, Senate Democrats urged immediate hearings into a reported $500 million UAE-linked stake in Trump family crypto venture World Liberty Financial, alleging potential foreign influence.
Trump cites Reflecting Pool vandalism as Polymarket keeps Starmer at 82.5%
Washington’s Reflecting Pool will be drained after Donald Trump again blamed vandalism for bright green algae and peeling paint, citing arrests and promising proof in court.
Trump-Iran inspections dispute lifts Polymarket’s 2028 Vance odds to 20.25%
During weekend Switzerland talks, JD Vance said an inspections deal with Iran would mark a milestone, after Trump claimed IAEA inspectors would return and Tehran denied new commitments.
Colombia swing right leaves Polymarket 2028 GOP nod steady with RFK Jr. at 49%
An initial ballot count after Colombia’s June 22 runoff put nationalist newcomer Abelardo De La Espriella ahead, with the final verified tally nearly complete Monday.
U.S.-Iran talks ease tensions as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 78.5%
Early Monday in Switzerland, high-level U.S.-Iran talks ended with mediators citing “encouraging progress” and a 60-day roadmap plus a direct hotline to prevent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump-backed Colombian runoff lead meets Polymarket’s 2028 Vance 20% edge
With over 99% of ballots counted, Abelardo de la Espriella led Colombia’s presidential runoff 49.7% to 48.7% as Iván Cepeda refused to concede pending official verification.
Oil slips on US-Iran talk progress as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 79%
Brent crude slid 1.85% to $79.08 by 2:40 p.m. Singapore time after mediators said Washington and Tehran agreed to a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal.
Trump AI export order jolts Polymarket, Starmer exit odds jump to 84.5%
Anthropic took its newest AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, offline after a Trump administration export control order, as questions mount over security claims and guardrail bypass reports.
Trump cites Reflecting Pool vandalism as Polymarket prices Petro exit at 62.5%
On June 20, Donald Trump said contractors may have to drain the newly renovated Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool for repairs after alleged vandalism.
Colombia vote turns on security as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr at 49%
Ahead of Sunday’s Colombia election, escalating killings, kidnappings and armed-group expansion are making security the defining issue as candidates split between peace talks and a crackdown.