DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
Trump-Iran inspections dispute lifts Polymarket’s 2028 Vance odds to 20.25%
During weekend Switzerland talks, JD Vance said an inspections deal with Iran would mark a milestone, after Trump claimed IAEA inspectors would return and Tehran denied new commitments.
Colombia swing right leaves Polymarket 2028 GOP nod steady with RFK Jr. at 49%
An initial ballot count after Colombia’s June 22 runoff put nationalist newcomer Abelardo De La Espriella ahead, with the final verified tally nearly complete Monday.
U.S.-Iran talks ease tensions as Polymarket puts Starmer exit odds at 78.5%
Early Monday in Switzerland, high-level U.S.-Iran talks ended with mediators citing “encouraging progress” and a 60-day roadmap plus a direct hotline to prevent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump-backed Colombian runoff lead meets Polymarket’s 2028 Vance 20% edge
With over 99% of ballots counted, Abelardo de la Espriella led Colombia’s presidential runoff 49.7% to 48.7% as Iván Cepeda refused to concede pending official verification.
Oil slips on US-Iran talk progress as Polymarket puts Starmer exit at 79%
Brent crude slid 1.85% to $79.08 by 2:40 p.m. Singapore time after mediators said Washington and Tehran agreed to a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal.
Trump AI export order jolts Polymarket, Starmer exit odds jump to 84.5%
Anthropic took its newest AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, offline after a Trump administration export control order, as questions mount over security claims and guardrail bypass reports.
Trump cites Reflecting Pool vandalism as Polymarket prices Petro exit at 62.5%
On June 20, Donald Trump said contractors may have to drain the newly renovated Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool for repairs after alleged vandalism.
Colombia vote turns on security as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr at 49%
Ahead of Sunday’s Colombia election, escalating killings, kidnappings and armed-group expansion are making security the defining issue as candidates split between peace talks and a crackdown.
Vance heads to Switzerland as Polymarket puts Witkoff at 15.5%
From Joint Base Andrews, Vice President JD Vance flew to Switzerland as U.S.-Iran talks were expected to run overnight Monday amid rising regional tensions.
Trump floats Hormuz tolls as Polymarket Petro-out odds slip to 51.5%
This week, President Donald Trump said the U.S. could impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if a peace deal with Iran fails, even as officials disputed whether Iran has shut the route.
AP-NORC Iran poll dents Trump as Polymarket keeps Vance atop 2028 race
June 11-17 AP-NORC polling found 65% of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, with his overall approval at 37% and unchanged since May.
Italy fumes over Trump-Meloni spat as Polymarket keeps Starmer exit at 67.5%
Italy’s foreign minister Antonio Tajani canceled his June 21–22 US trip after reported Trump remarks mocking Giorgia Meloni drew a sharp diplomatic backlash.
Altman cools on IPO talk as Polymarket prices Vance at 19.55% for 2028
Sam Altman said he is “0%” excited to be a public-company CEO as OpenAI reportedly filed confidential preliminary SEC paperwork that can precede an IPO.
Hormuz shipping resumes after ceasefire as Polymarket 2028 GOP odds stay flat
On Friday, Brent crude climbed to $80.38 as at least four tankers entered the Strait of Hormuz after an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, despite Iran signaling tighter transit controls.
Mamdani’s NY primary push watched for 2028 shift as Vance leads Polymarket
On Thursday in Brooklyn, NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani rallied thousands with Bernie Sanders ahead of Tuesday’s New York primaries, urging Democrats to move left and back challengers.
