DONALD TRUMP PREDICTION MARKETS
Polymarket prices 4% chance Trump acquires Greenland by 2027 as odds dip
A party-process story in Maine about Democrats applying 2024 lessons and a replacement process involving Platner is the latest headline tied to the Greenland question, but it offers no concrete
Polymarket odds show Vance leading 2028 field at 19.85%
A published analysis featuring CNN’s Harry Enten warns a “Democratic Socialist primary revolt” could become “a new Tea Party, but it’s on steroids,” reshaping coalitions and primary outcomes.
Trump urges US-Spain trade cutoff as Polymarket backs Starmer exit at 97.3%
On July 8, 2026, Donald Trump reportedly called for cutting off all U.S. trade with Spain, without detailing how or when it would happen.
Gaza strike report fails to move Polymarket, RFK Jr holds 49% for 2028 GOP
A report said an Israeli strike in Gaza killed an organizer of a World Cup public screening just before kickoff. Polymarket traders are watching for any ripple into U.S.
US Iran strike report jolts Polymarket 2028 race as Vance holds 20.05%
A report said the United States struck Iran after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with no immediate official confirmation or Iranian response.
Iran waiver revoked lifts oil, Polymarket keeps Starmer exit odds at 97.2%
Oil climbed about 5% after the United States revoked an Iran oil sanctions waiver, tightening expectations for Iranian crude flows and adding supply uncertainty.
US moves to reimpose Iran sanctions as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr at 49%
On Tuesday, a report said the United States is moving to reimpose sanctions in response to strikes involving Iran.
McMorrow exit tightens Michigan race as Polymarket keeps Vance atop at 20%
On Monday, Michigan state senator Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the state’s U.S. Senate race, leaving Rep.
Hamas Gaza handover report lifts Polymarket: Maduro 78.65% to lead Venezuela
On July 6, 2026, a report said Hamas dissolved its Gaza government and will transfer authority to a UN-backed committee.
Trump backs July 4 Mall event as Polymarket keeps Starmer exit at 96.75%
Donald Trump said he personally overruled advice to cancel a July 4 National Mall event, putting himself at the center of the decision.
Kyiv hit as Polymarket puts Maduro at 79% to lead Venezuela in 2026
A Russian missile-and-drone assault on Kyiv killed at least five people, with emergency crews responding as aerial attacks persist.
Philippine Senate impeachment trial shifts focus, Starmer 96% on Polymarket
The Philippine Senate has opened an impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, injecting fresh volatility into near-term politics.
McMorrow ends Senate bid as Polymarket pegs Starmer exit at 96.35%
On July 5, 2026, Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow abruptly suspended her U.S. Senate bid, reshaping the Democratic field.
McConnell health scare shifts 2028 chatter as Polymarket tags Vance at 20%
Mitch McConnell was hospitalized after a reported medical emergency, renewing scrutiny of Kentucky’s 2024 law requiring a special election if his seat becomes vacant before January 2027.
Trump’s Salute to America speech leaves Polymarket 2028 GOP odds unchanged
During a live “Salute to America” program, President Donald Trump delivered featured remarks with no policy details released.
